BURN THE HORSE
In this space almost 11 months ago we told you about the daunting task
UALR faced when it traveled to Louisville to take on Kentucky. Then UALR held
the lead for about 35 minutes before Kentucky went on a late run to put the
Trojans away.
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BTH UALR GAMEDAY |
UALR was already brimming with confidence after becoming the first Sun
Belt Conference team in years to sweep the North Texas-Denver road trip. And
they played like a confident bunch in Louisville and throughout the rest of the
season en route to a West Division championship.
That brings us to tonight where UALR returns to the same part of the
country for a matchup against No. 11 Cincinnati at Fifth Third Arena. The
confidence in this UALR team is growing by the day and they’ve exceeded what last
year’s team did in November and December.
How does that carry over into tonight? There’s just no way to know.
Cincy plays tight, half court, man-to-man defense with active hands
always in the passing lanes. On offense, they play a lot of four out motion
with four players stationed around the perimeter. They’re a decent three-point
shooting team but are really looking to drive and dish. Only 32 percent of
their field-goal attempts come from three-point range.
They’ve jumped out to huge early leads in each of their home games this
season and will look to put UALR away early.
BURN NOTICE
Even though Cincinnati is a guard-oriented team, they still want to
score in the paint. This season they’ve averaged a 36-22 advantage in points in
the paint. In their five home games, that advantage grows to a 41-23 advantage.
UALR has to force Cincinnati to take contested jump shots.
KEYS TO VICTORY
The matchup: Cincinnati’s Sean Kilpatrick vs. UALR’s Leroy Isler.
Kilpatrick is a future NBA player. Isler has become UALR’s lock down defender.
There seems to be no way for UALR to stay in this game if Kilpatrick goes off for
a big night.
Toughen up: Cincinnati is a tough, physical team while UALR has been a
finesse team. UALR’s got to get tougher and keep Cincinnati from getting second
chances.
Jump around: Much like when UALR played Kentucky last year, UALR isn’t
going to get a lot of open layup opportunities. Why? Cincinnati is an excellent
shot blocking team. The Trojans are going to have to make some jumpers.
VEGAS, BABY
Cincinnati is a 20-point favorite tonight. This is the sixth time this
season UALR has been a Vegas underdog. UALR is 2-3 in the previous five games
both straight up and against the spread. Cincinnati has covered the Vegas
number 50 percent of the time this season.
PREDICTIONS
Everyone goes with No. 11 Cincinnati tonight. The Average prediction is Cincinnati by 22.6 points:
REAL TIME RPI (8-1):
Cincinnati 88, UALR 66
THE SPORTS NETWORK (7-1): Cincinnati 80, UALR 62
JEFF SAGARIN (7-2): Cincinnati
93, UALR 72
CBS SPORTSLINE (7-2): Cincinnati 78, UALR 57
OMNI RANKINGS (1-0): Cincinnati 84, UALR 53
BTH AVERAGE (7-2): Cincinnati
84.6, UALR 62.0
