BURN THE HORSE
Statistical Web site OmniRankings (www.omnirankings.com) has UALR as its fourth choice to win the 2012 Sun Belt Tournament.
OmniRankings picks top seeded Middle Tennessee to win the Sun Belt Tournament, but it actually gives Denver a better percentage of winning it all.
Denver is given an 84.22 percent chance of winning its first game, a 65 percent chance in its second game and a 38.44 percent chance in the championship game. That is better than Middle Tennessee’s 37.58 percent chance of winning.
North Texas is the third choice with an 8.17 percent chance and UALR fourth at 5.82 percent.
OmniRankings doesn’t go with a first-round upset, taking Florida Atlantic over Arkansas State, Western Kentucky over Florida International and South Alabama over Troy.
Jeff Sagarin’s predictions also don’t favor first-round upsets, but two of the three games are really too close to call. He has:
· Florida Atlantic 0.11 points better than Arkansas State
· Western Kentucky 0.54 points better than Florida International
· South Alabama 2.69 points better than Troy