BURN THE HORSE
 |
| UALR at Middle Tennessee Noon Today ESPN2 Vegas says: MT by 12.5 |
Let’s just go ahead and say it. Middle Tennessee is good, really good.
So how about we start with this: Three of Middle Tennessee’s four losses this season have come in day games. And today’s clash between UALR and Middle Tennessee tips off at Noon on ESPN2.
Before we get carried away, realize that UALR is just 2-3 in day games. And the Trojans are winless on TV this year.
We’ve seen Michael Javes look really good at times and struggle, especially on defense, at others. He’s got a huge task today in defending 6-9 LaRon Dendy, who leads the Blue Raiders at 14.4 points and 7 rebounds. Javes has got to hold his ground without picking up cheap fouls.
Today’s game has much at stake. The winner will take the overall Sun Belt Conference lead and have an inside track to a guaranteed NIT berth.
BTH Keys to Victory
TURN, TURN, TURN: Middle Tennessee is nowhere near as turnover prone as Louisiana-Lafayette was. UALR is turning the ball over an average of 7.5 times in their past four games. Keeping that turnover total to 12 or fewer while pushing Middle Tennessee over that mark is a key. Middle Tennessee is 16-0 when committing fewer turnovers than its opponent. UALR is 8-6 when it commits fewer turnovers.
ALARM CLOCK: It will likely be a sellout crowd of blue-clad fans at the Murphy Center today. UALR has to take them out of the game for large portions of time. You do that by getting off to a good start. That was key on Thursday at Louisiana-Lafayette. Middle Tennessee is 20-0 this season when leading at halftime but just 2-4 when trailing. UALR is only 2-6 when trailing at the half. UALR needs a solid first half.
DON’T SETTLE: We saw the recipe for UALR success on Thursday against Louisiana-Lafayette. The Trojans just can’t settle for three-pointers. UALR made 4 of 10 at ULL, including two in the final minute. Shooting 12 or fewer free throws would mean the Trojans are getting their shots elsewhere. That would be a good thing. And one out of every four Middle Tennessee shots is a three-pointer. Making them shoot more would be another good sign.
FREE MONEY: It‘s national TV with officials looking to impress folks. That typically means there won‘t be a lot of fouls called. UALR has to force the action. The Trojans are 8-2 when outscoring their opponent at the free throw line this season. Middle Tennessee is 14-2 when outscoring opponents there. But the Blue Raiders made only 17 of 37 on Thursday vs. Western. The free throw battle might be uphill but UALR has to find a way to keep pace.
Vegas, baby
Middle Tennessee is favored by 12.5 points. UALR is 6-1 in Sun Belt Conference games as the underdog.
Predictions
CBS Sportsline usually goes against UALR when it's close. But check them out today? Is UALR playing Kentucky?
- Omni Rankings (12-7): MTSU 71, UALR 56
- Jeff Sagarin (15-9): MTSU 85, UALR 71
- CBS Sportsline (15-9): MTSU 79, UALR 52
- Real TimeRPI (13-11): MTSU 77, UALR 59
- Combination: MTSU 78, UALR 62
