BURN THE HORSE
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| UALR at ULL 7 p.m. tonight Lafayette, La. Vegas says: ULL by 7 |
There’s almost too much at stake this week for UALR as the Trojans take on Louisiana-Lafayette tonight and Middle Tennessee on Saturday.
But Saturday really only becomes extremely meaningful if UALR wins on Thursday.
UALR leads Louisiana-Lafayette by a half game in the Sun Belt Conference's West Division standings. The winner tonight will hold the West Division lead on Friday morning. If UALR wins on Thursday, it would set up a game on Saturday against overall leader Middle Tennessee with the winner of that game having an inside track to an automatic NIT berth.
But if UALR loses tonight, Saturday's game won't be nearly as meaningful.
It starts against Louisiana-Lafayette before what figures to be a large crowd at the Cajundome. UALR lost by 19 points in the first meeting this year. But the Trojans just couldn’t make any shots. We’ll find out tonight how much of that was Louisiana-Lafayette’s doing and how much was UALR’s doing.
BTH Keys to Victory
MAKE ‘EM PAY: Louisiana-Lafayette has been turning the ball over at an awful pace. They had 23 turnovers on Saturday at Troy and 22 in the first meeting with UALR. But UALR only turned those 22 turnovers into 18 points. UALR has to turn the Cajuns over and then make them pay for it.
DEFEND INSIDE-OUT: Louisiana-Lafayette only attempted 15 three-pointers in the first meeting with UALR. Why? Because they didn’t have to. In their Sun Belt losses, the Cajuns made just 4 three-pointers vs. Arkansas State and just five vs. South Alabama and Middle Tennessee. UALR has to defend the paint to force the Cajuns into three-pointers. Then they’ve got to get a hand in their face for those attempts.
STALE MATE: UALR has to fight Louisiana-Lafayette to a stalemate in rebounding. The Cajuns held a huge advantage in the first game, but that was spiked by UALR’s 50 missed field goals. UALR needs to get some putbacks and extended possessions by getting on the glass.
DON’T SETTLE: UALR can’t settle for three-pointers. In the first meeting, Chuck Guy hit a 25-footer and everyone became an NBA three-point shooters. UALR has to attack the paint for mid-range jump shots and potential trips to the free throw line. And UALR has to make some of the mid-range jumpers that just didn’t go down in the first meeting.
Vegas, baby
Las Vegas favors Louisiana-Lafayette by seven points. The Trojans are 5-2 in their past seven games as an underdog.
Predictions
- Omni Rankings (12-6): ULL 69, UALR 61
- Jeff Sagarin (15-8): ULL 75, UALR 71
- CBS Sports line (15-8): ULL 71, UALR 65
- The Sports Network (14-9):
- Real Time RPI (13-10): ULL 76, UALR 65
- Combination: ULL 73, UALR 66
