BURN THE HORSE
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| Florida Atlantic vs. UALR 7 p.m. tonight JSC Vegas says: FAU by 2 |
Since then, the Trojans have only won twice. But they were the two most important games at North Texas and Denver.
That brings us to today’s matchup against Florida Atlantic, which was the preseason pick to win the Sun Belt Conference’s East Division.
UALR remains a bit of a mystery today because we don’t really know the status of leading scorer and rebounder Will Neighbour, who dislocated his shoulder last Saturday at Denver. Neighbour’s status is officially listed as game-to-game as he does rehab work on the shoulder. That means he potentially could return today, next week or even next month.
We know Florida Atlantic Coach Mike Jarvis challenged his team to pick it up defensively and they held Louisiana-Monroe to nine first-half points and 21 second-half points on Thursday night. Since then, the Owls have had a flight to Atlanta and one to Little Rock to prepare for today’s game.
Florida Atlantic plays a bunch of guys with 11 playing at least 10 minutes a game. It starts with point guard Raymond Taylor. He’s only 5-6 but can beat you in a lot of ways.
Trojan killer Greg Gantt leads the Owls at 13.9 points and shoots 41 percent from three-point range. Last year’s Trojan killer Kore White averages 9.0 points.
BTH Keys
1. Solid start: The first half hasn’t really been the issue for UALR this season. The Trojans have in 11 of 16 games at halftime. But they’re only 5-6 in those games. Florida Atlantic, which is 1-7 on the road, is 3-1 when leading at the half and 2-9 when trailing. UALR needs a fast start.
2. Slow down: UALR was quite effective against Kentucky at picking its spots to slow the game’s pace. That could work to UALR’s advantage. The Owls are just 2-9 when scoring 69 or fewer points.
3. Board it: UALR was totally manhandled in rebounding at Kentucky, but the Trojans have been a better rebounding team of late. FAU gets outrebounded by two per game for the season and are 2-9 when they have fewer rebounds than their opponents.
4. D up: UALR’s first half defense has been much better than its second-half defense this season. UALR needs a full-game defensive effort tonight. Florida Atlantic shoots 41 percent from the field for the season but the Owls are 0-7 when shooting less than 40 percent. That’s a key number today.
Vegas says
Florida Atlantic remains a two-point favorite tonight. UALR has still not been favored by Las Vegas in any game this season. UALR has covered the spread in seven consecutive games.
Predictions
Interesting to note that the only human among the pickers takes Florida Atlantic today. All the computer-based pickers take UALR at home. Combo predicts a narrow UALR victory.
- CBS Sports line (11-4): UALR 70, Florida Atlantic 68
- Jeff Sagarin (11-4): UALR 74, Florida Atlantic 73
- The Sports Network (10-5): Florida Atlantic 61, UALR 58
- Real Time RPI (9-6): UALR 69, Florida Atlantic 62
- Combo: UALR 68, Florida Atlantic 66
