BURN THE HORSE
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| UALR (3-10) at North Texas (7-6) 7 p.m. Thursday Denton, Texas |
Comparing records, it doesn’t appear UALR has much of a shot in Thursday’s Sun Belt Conference opener at North Texas.
UALR enters the game at 3-10 on the season while North Texas is 7-6. But what if UALR had played North Texas’ nonconference schedule? What would UALR’s record be then?
North Texas opened with a victory over non-Division I St. Gregory’s. The Mean Green then lost road games at Texas Tech, Texas-Arlington, Mississippi State and Texas to drop to 1-4. It’s likely UALR would have also been 1-4 after these five games.
Next, North Texas played in the Loyola Marymount tournament. They played non-Division I La Sierra, Columbia and Loyola Marymount. The Mean Green beat La Sierra and Loyola Marymount to improve to 3-5 on the season. It seems likely UALR could have pulled a similar 2-1 record out of that event.
North Texas then played its next five games at home, beating Sam Houston State, Jackson State, Grambling State and New Orleans and losing to LSU. UALR beat Sam Houston’s Southland Conference mate Northwestern State at home and NSU is rated higher than Sam Houston. It appears likely UALR would have had a similar record if the Trojans had played those games.
So, North Texas is 7-6 on the season but just 4-6 against non-Division I opponents. And the Mean Green is just 2-5 against opponents who aren’t non-Division I or SWAC.
UALR has played one non-Division I opponent this year and hasn’t played an opponent from the SWAC.
It appears to be a mismatch if you compare records. If you compare schedules, it's a much more evenly matched game.
