The real answer is likely somewhere between first and sixth. With the departure of Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Florida International and Florida Atlantic, the Sun Belt Conference figured to have a dropoff this year. The reality is that isn't going to happen. At least not this year.
At this point I think you could pick the winner out of a hat including the expected top six in the league: Western Kentucky, South Alabama, UALR, Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette and Georgia State. Throw those six into a hat and draw them out. I don't believe there is a clear-cut favorite. All six appear to be poised for a big season.
Here's where it gets interesting. Expect one of those six to falter (see North Texas last year). And I expect someone not in that top six will make a move. Texas-Arlington was pretty good last year. Texas State has a new, and very good, coach who will make them better. Troy has a new coach that should make them better. And Louisiana-Monroe should be finally getting out of their NCAA sanctions. They could improve.
I expect the Conference RPI to take another step forward this year. And if these teams don't beat up on each other, I think this could be one of the best seasons this conference has seen in a while.
