If Florida International wins on Saturday vs. Florida Atlantic it will be the No. 4 seed. If UALR and WKU remain tied, UALR wins that tiebreaker.
If Florida International loses on Saturday and UALR and Western Kentucky both win their games, then there will be a three-way tie at 11-9. UALR wins the three-way tiebreaker for the 4 seed. WKU and FIu would have to break the tie for the 5 seed. They split in the regular season. WKU would win the tiebreaker for its victory over the top seed (vs. Middle on Saturday). WKU would be the 5 and FIU the 6 if that happens.
Western Kentucky can still get to the 4 seed if FIU and UALR lose and the Hilltoppers beat Middle Tennessee. That would make FIU the 5 and UALR the 6.
If we've done the math correctly, Troy got locked into the 10 spot with their loss to Middle Tennessee coupled with North Texas' victory over Arkansas State. That locked North Texas into the 9. Louisiana-Lafayette is locked into the 8 and Florida Atlantic will be the 7.
Saturday's games include:
- Louisiana-Lafayette at Louisiana-Monroe (4 p.m.)
- Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky (5:30 p.m.)
- Florida International at Florida Atlantic (6 p.m.)
- Arkansas State at UALR (7 p.m.)
- South Alabama at Troy (7:30 p.m.)
