Halfway through the 2012-2013 season and Ben Dillard
still hasn’t taken off like we expected he would. Dillard, one of UALR’s most accomplished three-point shooters, hasn’t
blossomed into the scorer he was expected to become during his sophomore year.
UALR (8-7, 2-2) hosts Western Kentucky (10-5, 4-0) at 7:30 tonight at the Jack Stephens Center.
Dillard played behind Chuck Guy most of last year but was expected to
be a major scoring threat as a sophomore. After all, he shot 43 percent from
three-point range as a freshman. It appeared more playing time and additional
confidence as a sophomore, would see his 4.7 points per game scoring average
shoot up as a sophomore.
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| Ben Dillard |
It appeared Dillard was headed out of his scoring slump when he put up
17 points against Louisiana-Monroe, 8 vs. St. Gregory’s, 10 vs. Cincinnati and
8 vs. Tulsa. Three of those four games were victories. But since then he’s
struggled with 6 points vs. Louisiana Tech, 5 vs. South Alabama and 5 vs.
Louisiana-Lafayette. All three were losses.
It’s hurt UALR because the Trojans are in need of more scoring. Junior
Will Neighbour’s numbers are slightly up from a year ago, but UALR continues to
get very little scoring out of the post with Michael Javes and Gus Leeper. And when freshmen James White or John Gillon haven't been able to add to that, UALR has struggled to get needed scoring from the 2 position.
Junior Leroy Isler has been primarily the starter at the 2 mostly for
his defensive capabilities. But Isler has also contributed 6.9 points per game
in his 24.1 minutes. That has allowed Isler, more of a 3 guard, to take away
Dillard’s opportunities.
Considering UALR’s next two opponents – Western Kentucky and Troy –
like to play zone defense, jump shooting will be a needed asset. And Dillard’s
numbers show he has the potential to score.
BURN BABY BURN
UALR Coach Steve Shields once had a 4-3 record in games against Western
Kentucky. He’s now 4-11 with a current eight-game losing streak.
BURNING BRIDGES
UALR’s turnover situation has been much better of late. It will need to
be again tonight. WKU likely won’t press throughout, but they have a very
effective press they utilize when they need it. UALR’s guards will definitely
be tested tonight.
KEYS TO VICTORY
Hack Harris: Here’s a
remarkable statistic. Western Kentucky guard Brandon Harris has played 231 of
the past 240 minutes Western Kentucky has been on the court. He’s averaging
38.5 minutes during that stretch. But that’s not the remarkable part. The
remarkable part is that he’s only committed 8 fouls in six games. He’s been
nowhere near foul trouble. Considering that injuries have depleted WKU’s guard depth,
UALR needs to put some fouls on Harris to force someone else to beat them.
70th Heaven: This
we know for a fact. When UALR’s opponents score 69 or fewer points, UALR is
8-0. When opponents score 70 or more, UALR is 0-7. Holding WKU to fewer than 70
should be a priority. But it won’t be easy. WKU has scored 70 or more nine
times and is 8-1 in those games.
Fresh feeling: UALR needs
more from freshman guard/forward James White. He was averaging 12.0 points
through the first two Sun Belt Conference games but scored only 10 total in losses
to South Alabama and Louisiana-Lafayette.
VEGAS, BABY
The early line had Western Kentucky favored by 1 point tonight. But this morning it has slid to a pick 'em. Can't get much tighter than that.
PREDICTIONS
After getting burned in each of the past two games, CBS Sportsline doesn't go with UALR tonight. And now that TSN's pick is in, WKU is favored by 3 of the 5 selectors and by 0.2 points overall. This is the closest prediction we've ever had at BTH.
REAL TIME RPI (12-2): UALR
73, WKU 67
JEFF SAGARIN (12-2): WKU 76,
UALR 73
OMNI RANKINGS (5-1): UALR
66, WKU 64
THE SPORTS NETWORK (10-3): WKU 61, UALR 58
CBS SPORTSLINE (9-5): WKU 69, UALR 66
BTH AVERAGE (11-3): WKU 67.4, UALR
67.2
