UALR (11-8, 5-3), the Sun Belt’s West Division leader, is a 15-point
underdog tonight to Middle Tennessee (14-4, 6-1), the East Division leader.
Much as it did last year, Middle Tennessee is hyping this as one of its
biggest home games of the year. Last year, they scheduled a blue-out for fans.
Tonight, it’s a white out and a larger than normal crowd is expected.
Davis has 104 conference victories in 11 seasons at Middle Tennessee
while Shields has 76. But Shields has five division championships to Davis’
two. And Shields has one trip to the NCAA Tournament to Davis’ none.
BURN UNIT
We reported earlier in the week that Middle Tennessee’s Jacquez Rozier
is out for the season with a broken hand. The Daily News Journal of
Murfreesboro reported today that senior guard James Gallman has a concussion
and will be a game-time decision and that junior guard Tweety Knight has an
injured foot. UALR is expected to be without freshman guard John Gillon again
tonight.
BURN BABY BURN
UALR and Middle Tennessee are two of the four schools in the nation in
which the head coaches of the men’s and women’s basketball teams are the
all-time leaders in victories at the school. UALR’s Steve Shields and Joe Foley
are UALR’s all-time leaders while Middle Tennessee’s Kermit Davis and Rick
Insell are Middle Tennessee’s all-time leaders. The others are Gonzaga and
Sacred Heart.
BTH KEYS TO VICTORY
Avoid the runs: UALR has
lost each of its three Sun Belt Conference games because it couldn’t avoid
sustained scoring runs by its opponents. UALR has to avoid runs of 10 or more
points by Middle Tennessee tonight.
Let it fly: Middle Tennessee
is 14-0 when it shoots a higher field goal percentage than its opponent. UALR
is 11-2 when it shoots a higher percentage. Tonight’s winner likely shoots the
higher percentage from the field.
Rebound: We’ve seen some
signs of life from UALR concerning rebounding. The Trojans can’t afford to get
murdered on the boards tonight. Keep rebounds close and they’ve got a chance.
VEGAS, BABY
Middle Tennessee is a 15-point favorite as of this morning. The line
opened at 16.5 points yesterday.
PREDICTIONS
Not surprisingly, everyone is taking Middle Tennessee tonight:
OmniRankings (9-1): MTSU 75,
UALR 55
Real Time RPI (15-3): MTSU 73,
UALR 58
Jeff Sagarin (14-4): MTSU
86, UALR 70
The Sports Network (13-4): MTSU 70, UALR 60
CBS Sportsline (11-7): MTSU 75, UALR 57
BTH Average (13-5): MTSU
75.8, UALR 60.0
