BURN THE HORSE
There’s no
way you can judge the coaching job Keith Richard has done at Louisiana-Monroe
by wins and losses. The program was a mess and put on NCAA probation before he
got there thanks to the previous administration under Coach Orlando Early.
 |
BTH UALR GAMEDAYULM at UALR7 p.m. tonightJack Stephens Center |
And even
though they are out from under most of the NCAA sanctions, they’re still playing
the price. That’s why as we enter December, Louisiana-Monroe is playing just
its fourth game of the season. In contrast, this is UALR’s ninth.
UALR (5-3, 1-0 Sun Belt Conference) hosts Louisiana-Monroe (0-3, 0-1) at 7 p.m. tonight at the Jack Stephens Center.
Because the
sample size is so small, it’s difficult to say what Louisiana-Monroe is working
with this season. Clearly, they’ve recruited a top flight Sun Belt player in
Navarro Junior College transfer Amos Olatayo. But the Warhawks still don’t have
the size to bang in the Sun Belt night after night.
They’ve got
three players at 6-7 (only two will likely play big minutes) and play primarily
a seven man rotation with little size coming off the bench.
But they
played Louisiana Tech every bit as close as UALR did And they were tied with Western
Kentucky with 10 minutes remaining on Thursday night.
UALR’s
defense hasn’t been solid in the past two games. It needs to be tonight. ULM
shoots 38 percent from the field and 24 percent from three-point range. They
have been outrebounded by 9 per game and have blocked only three shots all
season.
Richard’s
time to shine at ULM may be coming in future years. UALR needs to make sure
that doesn’t start tonight.
BURN NOTICE
Paging UALR
sophomore Ben Dillard. Dillard had a nice freshman season. It wasn’t flashy. It
wasn’t spectacular. But it was solid. UALR was looking for more from Dillard
this year. But he seems to lack confidence early in the season and his minutes
have shrunk as a result. He’s made just 12 of 40 field goal attempts and only 2
of 10 three-pointers. But he’s a better player than that. If Dillard can make a
shot early in the game it just might spark a breakout for him.
BTH KEYS TO VICTORY
Shutdown: We’ve
seen signs of UALR junior Leroy Isler as a shutdown defender. He’ll get a
big-time opportunity tonight with a likely matchup against Louisiana-Monroe’s Amos
Olatayo. He had 21 points and no turnovers in 25 minutes vs. WKU on Thursday. The
transfer from Navarro Junior College made 8-12 field goals and 3-4
three-pointers.
Windex:
Rebounding has been a concern for the UALR coaching staff since the first
closed scrimmage this fall. It remains a major concern eight games into the
season. It’s time for UALR to get a body on a body and start using its size
advantage to grab rebounds. UALR teams under Coach Steve Shields win 67 percent
of the time when they are equal to or better than their opponent in rebounding.
Kill the
confidence: UALR let Troy get off to a big start on Thursday and had to battle
them to the final buzzer. UALR needs to control the early momentum tonight.
UALR is 3-0 this season when leading at halftime.
VEGAS SAYS
UALR is a
13-point favorite over Louisiana-Monroe. This is the fourth time UALR has been
a Vegas favorite this season. UALR is 4-0 in those games and 3-1 against the
spread.
PREDICTIONS
We welcome
last year’s BTH predictions champion Omni Rankings back to the fray this week.
They don’t predict games played in November because there isn’t enough statistical
evidence yet. And there’s definitely some credence to that strategy. The consensus tonight is UALR by 15:
REAL TIME RPI (7-1) UALR 78, ULM 57
THE SPORTS NETWORK (6-1)
UALR 72, ULM 58
JEFF SAGARIN (6-2) UALR 74, ULM 63
CBS SPORTSLINE (6-2) UALR 71, ULM 60
OMNI RANKINGS (0-0) UALR 75, ULM 57
BTH AVERAGE (6-2) UALR 74.0, ULM 59.0
