BURN THE HORSE
When
you talk about Troy University’s basketball team, the three-pointer immediately
comes to mind. It’s been a staple of Coach Don Maestri’s game plan for most of
his 31 years there.
TROY AT UALR7:30 p.m. tonightJack Stephens Center |
UALR
(4-3) opens Sun Belt Conference play at 7:30 p.m. tonight at the Jack Stephens
Center against Troy (4-3).
So
how much is this Troy team like many of the others Maestri has coached. In the
short term, it’s exactly the same.
So
far this season, 41 percent of Troy’s field goal attempts have been from beyond
the three-point line. Last year’s Troy team also attempted 41 percent of its
shots there. And the year before? Yep, they also attempted 41 percent of their
shots there.
But
what many fail to realize is that Maestri’s Troy teams are better when they
shoot less of their shots from the three-point line. He’s had two winning
seasons since joining the Sun Belt. In both of those seasons (08-09 and 09-10)
Troy attempted fewer than 40 percent of their shots from the three-point line.
In 2009-2010, Troy finished 20-13 and only attempted 33 percent of their shots
from 3.
In
2005-2006, Troy attempted 53 percent of its shots from three point range. And
they finished 14-15. Troy’s best teams in the Atlantic Sun were able to get
away with bombing threes. Their Sun Belt teams have not had the consistent
success unless finding other ways to score.
For UALR, that means you can't allow Troy to load up on easy baskets inside the arc. When Troy is forced to live behind the three-point line it hasn't found long-term success.
Troy’s
best three-point shooter this year is Hunter Williams (6-0 junior), who has
made 16 of 40 for 40 percent. Several others will shoot threes. Most are taken
by Tevin Calhoun (6-7 junior) at 31 percent, Denota Jethroe (6-4 sophomore) at
22 percent, Emil Jones (6-3 senior) at
25 percent and R.J. Scott (6-4 junior) at 28 percent.
Troy
has another statistical oddity this year. Antoine Meyers, who has started six
games and averages 25 minutes per game, has taken only one three-pointer this
season. He’s 1 for 1. Meyers does his damage from the free throw line where he
has made 22 of 29.
BURN NOTICE
While
going 3-1 last week, UALR shot 46 percent from the field and 41 percent from
three-point range. This came while holding opponents to 40 percent field and 28
percent from three-point range.
KEYS
THREES
PLEASE: It pretty much goes without saying against Troy. You have to limit
their three-point makes. Troy is 3-1 when shooting a higher three-point percentage
than its opponent. UALR won't mind Troy shooting a bunch of threes. But UALR has to contest those threes to keep the percentage down.
GLASS
CLEANER: Since the start of fall practice, rebounding has been a concern for
the UALR coaching staff. UALR was exposed for this during play last week in
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. UALR has to hold its own in rebounding, especially
with a considerable size advantage over Troy. Troy is 2-0 this season when it
outrebounds its opponent.
WIN
THE FOUR: Not sure how Troy will match up with UALR, but it’s likely the 6-10
Will Neighbour will be guarded by a 6-4 Troy player. While Troy may have quickness
advantage, UALR has the size advantage and needs to use it.
VEGAS BABY
The
line has floated around a bit over the past 24 hours but it’s settled at UALR
by 9 points. UALR has only been favored twice this season, beating
Tennessee-Martin and Jacksonville.
PREDICTIONS
REAL
TIME RPI (6-1) UALR 74, Troy 61
THE
SPORTS NETWORK (5-1) UALR 66, Troy 60
JEFF
SAGARIN (5-2) UALR 76, Troy 65
CBS
SPORTSLINE (5-2) UALR 71, Troy 63
OMNI
RANKINGS (0-0)
BTH
AVERAGE (5-2) UALR 71.8, Troy 62.3