UALR Gameday: Troy's long-range bombing not always what works best

BURN THE HORSE

When you talk about Troy University’s basketball team, the three-pointer immediately comes to mind. It’s been a staple of Coach Don Maestri’s game plan for most of his 31 years there.

TROY AT UALR

7:30 p.m. tonight
Jack Stephens Center
UALR (4-3) opens Sun Belt Conference play at 7:30 p.m. tonight at the Jack Stephens Center against Troy (4-3).

So how much is this Troy team like many of the others Maestri has coached. In the short term, it’s exactly the same.

So far this season, 41 percent of Troy’s field goal attempts have been from beyond the three-point line. Last year’s Troy team also attempted 41 percent of its shots there. And the year before? Yep, they also attempted 41 percent of their shots there.

But what many fail to realize is that Maestri’s Troy teams are better when they shoot less of their shots from the three-point line. He’s had two winning seasons since joining the Sun Belt. In both of those seasons (08-09 and 09-10) Troy attempted fewer than 40 percent of their shots from the three-point line. In 2009-2010, Troy finished 20-13 and only attempted 33 percent of their shots from 3.

In 2005-2006, Troy attempted 53 percent of its shots from three point range. And they finished 14-15. Troy’s best teams in the Atlantic Sun were able to get away with bombing threes. Their Sun Belt teams have not had the consistent success unless finding other ways to score.
 
For UALR, that means you can't allow Troy to load up on easy baskets inside the arc. When Troy is forced to live behind the three-point line it hasn't found long-term success.

Troy’s best three-point shooter this year is Hunter Williams (6-0 junior), who has made 16 of 40 for 40 percent. Several others will shoot threes. Most are taken by Tevin Calhoun (6-7 junior) at 31 percent, Denota Jethroe (6-4 sophomore) at 22 percent, Emil Jones  (6-3 senior) at 25 percent and R.J. Scott (6-4 junior) at 28 percent.

Troy has another statistical oddity this year. Antoine Meyers, who has started six games and averages 25 minutes per game, has taken only one three-pointer this season. He’s 1 for 1. Meyers does his damage from the free throw line where he has made 22 of 29.

BURN NOTICE

While going 3-1 last week, UALR shot 46 percent from the field and 41 percent from three-point range. This came while holding opponents to 40 percent field and 28 percent from three-point range.

KEYS

THREES PLEASE: It pretty much goes without saying against Troy. You have to limit their three-point makes. Troy is 3-1 when shooting a higher three-point percentage than its opponent. UALR won't mind Troy shooting a bunch of threes. But UALR has to contest those threes to keep the percentage down.
GLASS CLEANER: Since the start of fall practice, rebounding has been a concern for the UALR coaching staff. UALR was exposed for this during play last week in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. UALR has to hold its own in rebounding, especially with a considerable size advantage over Troy. Troy is 2-0 this season when it outrebounds its opponent.
WIN THE FOUR: Not sure how Troy will match up with UALR, but it’s likely the 6-10 Will Neighbour will be guarded by a 6-4 Troy player. While Troy may have quickness advantage, UALR has the size advantage and needs to use it.

VEGAS BABY

The line has floated around a bit over the past 24 hours but it’s settled at UALR by 9 points. UALR has only been favored twice this season, beating Tennessee-Martin and Jacksonville.

PREDICTIONS

REAL TIME RPI (6-1) UALR 74, Troy 61
THE SPORTS NETWORK (5-1) UALR 66, Troy 60
JEFF SAGARIN (5-2) UALR 76, Troy 65
CBS SPORTSLINE (5-2) UALR 71, Troy 63
OMNI RANKINGS (0-0)
BTH AVERAGE (5-2) UALR 71.8, Troy 62.3

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