BURN THE HORSE
There is only one remaining scenario that would keep UALR from the No. 2 seed at next month’s Sun Belt Tournament in Hot Springs.
UALR leads the West Division with an 11-3 record with two games remaining. Denver and Louisiana-Lafayette are both 10-5 with one game remaining. And North Texas is 8-6 with two games remaining.
UALR will be seeded no worse than third at the Sun Belt Tournament. That means the Trojans will be in the opposite bracket from overall champion Middle Tennessee.
The scenarios are:
- If UALR wins either at home against North Texas on Thursday or at home against Arkansas State on Saturday, the Trojans will win the division outright and claim the No. 2 seed.
- If UALR loses both games, then Louisiana-Lafayette and Denver both have an opportunity to claim a share of the West Division championship. But only Louisiana-Lafayette can steal the No. 2 seed.
- If UALR, ULL and Denver all finished tied at 11-5, UALR would be the 2 seed, Louisiana-Lafayette the 3 seed and Denver the 4 seed.
- If UALR and Denver finished tied at 11-5, UALR gets the 2 seed and Denver the 3 seed because UALR swept the season series. But that scenario is unlikely with ULL finishing the season against struggling Louisiana-Monroe.
- If UALR and Louisiana-Lafayette finish tied at 11-5 it takes three tiebreakers to decide it. The teams split the season series and both would have a 7-3 West Division record. The third tiebreaker is record vs. the 1st place team, 2nd place team, etc. Both UALR and ULL lost to Middle Tennessee. It would then come down to the fourth seed. UALR went 2-0 vs. Denver while ULL went 2-0 vs. North Texas. Therefore under this scenario, UALR would get the 2 seed if Denver beats North Texas on Sunday while ULL would get the 2 seed if North Texas beats Denver on Sunday. FYI, that game is being played in Denver.
UALR needs to win one of two games this week. If that doesn’t happen, UALR needs Denver to beat North Texas on Sunday in Denver.