BURN THE HORSELast night's Sun Belt results didn't do anything to help UALR. Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State both won on the road and Denver held serve at home. Because seeding is determined strictly by division standings this season, here's a look at where we stand in the West Division:
Denver 8-3 12-12Right now, it appears 11 victories would secure a bye in the first round of the Sun Belt Tournament. Those getting to 10 victories would likely have to win a tie-breaker.
Arkansas State 8-4 14-13
UL-Lafayette 6-5 9-14
North Texas 5-5 16-7
UALR 5-5 13-12
UL-Monroe 1-11 6-20
Everyone's best hope to get one of the two byes is for Denver to fall apart on the road. The Pioneers still have road games at North Texas, Louisiana-Lafayette and Troy. They also have two winnable games. That means Denver is going to likely finish at least 10-6.
Arkansas State is already 8-4 and has only four games remaining (at Troy and ULL and home vs. UALR and UNT). It's likely ASU also gets to at least 10-6. ASU has won consecutive road games and could get to 11 by stealing one of those road games.
Louisiana-Lafayette is 6-5 and has won five straight games. The Cajuns have three home games remaining (ASU, WKU and DEN) and they go on the road (FAU and ULM). It seems likely they're also going to be at about 10 victories and they've got a shot to run the table if they win at FAU on Saturday.
And North Texas and UALR are both sitting at 5-5. North Texas badly needs to win on Saturday at WKU to keep pace. That game is being nationally televised and WKU has lost back-to-back home games to USA and MTSU.
For UALR to finish 10-6, it would have to win five of the six remaining games. That could be accomplished by winning the three home games and stealing two road victories at ULM, USA or ASU. It might take winning all six. Ken Pomeroy predicts UALR to win five of the remaining six games (wins at home against WKU, MTSU and NT and on the road against ULM and USA. But unless UALR can win at struggling ULM on Saturday, there's really not much chance of that.